Compact target (bits)
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Waiting for network data.
BC2 solo snapshot calculator
Solo mining chance.
Pick a network, enter your hashrate, and this page will estimate expected blocks, hit probabilities, and side-by-side comparisons using the current compact target for each network.
Refreshing network snapshot...
BitcoinII
Network and inputs
Select a network, set your machine speed, and choose the runtime you want to inspect.
Difficulty
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Computed from the currently loaded compact target.
Mean time to 1 block
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Expectation only. Real outcomes vary around this.
50% hit time
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Time needed for about a coin-flip chance of at least one block.
Preset windows
Expectation is linear. Hit probability uses P(at least 1) = 1 - exp(-lambda).
Probability profile
Enter a positive hashrate to draw the chart.
| Window | Total hashes | Expected blocks | P(at least 1) |
|---|
Custom runtime breakdown
Enter a positive hashrate and runtime to inspect one exact interval.
Same hashrate, same runtime, all networks
Comparison uses your current hashrate and runtime.
Formula notes
This page keeps the current network snapshot fixed for the whole interval, so very long windows are indicative rather than predictive.
Show calculation details
Each network provides a standard Bitcoin compact target, usually called bits. The page decodes that compact value into an exponent and a 3-byte mantissa.
Difficulty is computed in the standard Bitcoin way: difficulty = diff1_target / target.
Expected blocks over a window are computed as lambda = hashrate x seconds / (difficulty x 2^32).
The hit probability uses P(at least 1) = 1 - exp(-lambda). The 0, 1, 2, and 3+ breakdown uses the matching Poisson probabilities for the same lambda.
Mean time to 1 block is the reciprocal expectation, and the 50% hit time is ln(2) times the mean time.